Overview
The meeting at which the European Central Bank's Governing Council sets monetary policy. Held eight times a year, it decides the three key ECB rates — the main refinancing, deposit facility, and marginal lending rates. The most important event for the euro area's monetary policy, followed by the President's press conference.
Meeting summary （published 2026-07-09）
At the 10-11 June 2026 Governing Council meeting, euro area financial markets were torn between the unresolved Middle East conflict and global artificial intelligence developments. Market-based inflation expectations stood at 3.0% for 2026, 2.4% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028. Underlying inflation, excluding energy and food, was projected to average 2.5% in 2026 and 2027 and 2.2% in 2028. Economic growth baseline was revised down to 0.8% for 2026, 1.2% for 2027 and 1.5% for 2028. Risks to inflation were assessed as upside, with 45% probability of inflation above 2.5% over the next two years. Wage growth had decelerated to 2.5% annually in Q1 2026 from 2.9% in Q4 2025; the energy shock had not yet fed into wages. Markets firmly priced in a first 25 basis point rate hike in June and a second in September, with 84% probability of a third hike by end-2026.