NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on October 13 that its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 points in September 2026 to 97.9, down from 98.7 in August and the lowest reading in three months. The figure slipped one-tenth of a point below the index's 52-year average of 98.0.

Six of the index's ten components declined in September. The share of owners saying it was a good time to expand dropped 5 points to 7%, while the net share expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell 4 points to 6%. The Uncertainty Index rose 1 point to 90, remaining well above its historical average of 68.

Labor quality and availability remained the top-cited business problem for the third consecutive month, rising 3 percentage points to 26%. Inflation concerns climbed 4 points to 20%, far above the historical average of 7%. The average interest rate on short-term loans increased 0.7 points to 8.2%.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Economic Trends report for August 2026 on September 8, 2026, showing the Small Business Optimism Index slipped to 98.7 points, down 1.1 points from July's reading of 99.8. Despite the decline, the index remained above its 52-year historical average of 98.0.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that uncertainty remains elevated as small business owners navigate a combination of weakened sales, supply chain disruptions, and inflation pressures. Actual sales worsened, with the seasonally adjusted net share of owners reporting higher nominal sales over the prior three months falling 5 points from July to negative 9%, the lowest reading since November 2025.

The Uncertainty Index eased 2 points to 89, though it remains well above its historical average of 68. Dunkelberg added that while expectations for the broader economy have dimmed, Main Street business owners remain largely positive about the health of their own individual businesses.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on August 11, 2026, that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.4 points in July to 99.8, up from 97.4 in June. The reading moved above the index's 52-year historical average of 98.0, reaching its highest level since August 2025.

Eight of the index's 10 components improved, with hiring plans providing the largest contribution to the overall gain. Real sales expectations and reports of inventories being "too low" each declined by 2 points. The share of owners planning capital expenditures in the next six months climbed 5 points from June to 25%, the highest reading since December 2024. NFIB's Small Business Employment Index also rebounded to 102.1 after four consecutive months of decline.

The Uncertainty Index, however, rose 2 points from June to 91, remaining well above its historical average of 68, driven by doubts over whether conditions favor expansion and uncertainty around capital expenditure plans. The share of owners citing "labor quality or availability" as their single most important problem increased 8 points to 27%, while those citing inflation as the top concern fell for the first time this year, to 14%.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on July 14, 2026, that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points in June to 97.4, up from 95.3 in May. The reading marked the highest level since February and brought the index close to its 52-year historical average of 98.0.

NFIB attributed the improvement primarily to substantially stronger expectations for better business conditions and real sales. The Uncertainty Index declined 2 points from May to 89, yet remained well above its long-run average of 68. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg noted that lower fuel costs provided relief for businesses and consumers, while high interest rates and modest economic growth continued to make owners cautious about hiring and capital spending.

On the labor market, a seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reported job openings they could not fill, up 3 points from May. Inflation remained a key concern: 21% of owners cited it as their single most important business problem—up 3 points from May and the highest share since October 2024—while the proportion reporting higher average selling prices rose 2 points to 38%, a fourth consecutive monthly increase and the highest reading since January 2023.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported in June that its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.6 point to 95.3 in May 2026. The index stayed below its 52-year average of 98.0 for a third straight month and reached its lowest level since October 2024.

The Uncertainty Index rose 3 points to 91, well above its historical average of 68. The share of owners reporting job openings they could not fill fell 5 points to 29%, the lowest since May 2020.

A net 36% of owners reported raising average selling prices, up 6 points and the highest reading since March 2023. Taxes (19%) and inflation (18%) topped the list of owners' single most important problems.